Murray-Darling Basin plan on the brink after NSW says it cannot meet water savings deadline

New South Wales will seek an exemption from its obligations to deliver the final stage of the Murray-Darling Basin plan, a move that could leave the environment short-changed millions of litres of water.

NSW will not meet a June 2024 deadline to deliver the last 25% of water savings of the plan, to be achieved through water-saving projects.

It is also behind on other key elements of the plan.

The declaration sets the stage for a showdown with the other basin states and poses a test for the new federal water minister, Tanya Plibersek. She must decide whether to give NSW the concessions it is seeking at the expense of the environment, or use the tough penalties that are built into the plan.

A failure by a state to deliver water for environmental flows can trigger buybacks of entitlements from the agricultural sector.

But more buybacks will be vehemently opposed by farmers and some communities along the river system, particularly in cotton- and rice-growing areas. In 2010 farmers in Griffith burned copies of the basin plan in protest at buybacks.

When the plan was agreed to in 2007, states were expected to deliver 605GL of water for the environment through projects that reduced evaporation or used water more effectively.

There are 32 of these, known as sustainable diversion limit adjustment mechanism projects (SDLAM), of which 21 are in NSW or run jointly with Victoria.

But as the $13bn basin plan nears its conclusion in 2024, it has become evident that many of the projects have not begun, or have been altered so significantly that they will not deliver anything like the amount of water promised by NSW.

For example, NSW proposed four years ago to shrink the surface area of the Menindee lakes and make them deeper, to save 106GL of water by reducing evaporation.

At estimates last month, Anderson appeared to indicate the NSW government was now proposing a suite of other projects instead, known as the Better Baaka.

Instead, Anderson appears to want to redefine the goals of the basin plan.

The other major NSW project, the Yanco Creek modernisation, is also running behind schedule. It aims to improve connections between the Murrumbidgee and the Murray, and was intended to save up to 35GL of water.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority will release a progress report on SDLAM projects in November.

The South Australian Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said NSW never intended to deliver on the plan.

Close said buybacks were the cheapest and most efficient way to return water to the system.